Poker Bluff Detection 101 : FBI Style

Bluff Detection 101 : FBI Style
(Thanks to the FBI and Joe Navarro)

Lord let me be as a cool window pane set in a church door.
The breath of the hopeful fogging my surface,
While I remain transparent to their sight.
So that I might condense fact
From the vapor of nuance,
In the tremor of their hands
Or the sound of their voice.
Give me vision into their hearts and minds,
As they offer prayers on your green-felt altar.
Let me be your alderman in the poker room,
So that I may gather their donations,
Like the whale strains krill from the sea.
by Mark Pinsker

How do we detect a bluff?
Is it "[f]rom the vapor of nuance,in the tremor of their hands or the sound of their voice?"In fact, many people still misinterpret a significant amount of nonverbal behavior as indicia of a bluff when, in fact, it just may be nervousness or such behavior as face touching that also can indicate honesty.
Traditional methods of detecting bluffs succeed only 50 percent of the time. Going strictly on "gut instinct" or flipping a coin has an equal success rate. However, we can use an alternative approach for detecting a bluff based on four criteria that will significantly improve your odds of detecting a bluff: 1. comfort/discomfort, 2. emphasis, 3. synchrony, and 4. perception management.

Comfort/Discomfort
Comfort is readily apparent in conversations with family members and friends. People sense when others have a good time and when they feel comfortable in their presence. Experiencing comfort in the presence of strangers becomes more difficult, especially in stressful situations, such as during a poker tournament. A person’s level of comfort or discomfort is one of the most important clues players should focus on when trying to establish veracity. Tension and distress most often manifest on bluff. Attempting to disguise their bluff places a distressing cognitive load on them as they struggle to fabricate a "reasonable bet" or answers to what otherwise would be simple questions. When comfortable, an individual’s nonverbal behavior tends to mirror the other players present. For example, if one player leans forward, the opponent in the hand tends to do so as well. Or, if one leans to the side with hands in pockets and feet crossed, the other person may do the same. Subconsciously, people demonstrate their comfort with whom they are playing. When touched, people may touch back to emphasize a point. Some may display their comfort more openly, such as showing more of their torso and the insides of their arms and legs. Players who speak the truth more often display comfort because they have no stress to conceal nor do they have a bluff to make them feel uncomfortable. While seated at a table, players comfortable with each other will move objects aside so that nothing blocks their view. Over time, they may draw closer so that they do not have to talk as loud, and their breathing rhythm, tone of speech, pitch, and general demeanor will become similar. Subtleties of comfort contrast with discomfort. People show discomfort when they do not like what is happening to them, what they are seeing or hearing, or when others compel them to talk about things that they would prefer to keep hidden. People first display discomfort physiologically—heart rates quicken, hairs stand up, perspiration increases, and breathing becomes faster. Beyond the physiological responses, which are autonomic and require very little thinking, people primarily manifest discomfort nonverbally instead of vocally. They tend to move their bodies by rearranging themselves, jiggling their feet, fidgeting, or drumming their fingers when scared, nervous, or significantly uncomfortable. If, while the bluffer appears relaxed and poised, the bluffer continually looks at their hand, sits tensely, or does not move (“flash frozen”), may discern a lack of comfort even though everything may appear normal to the untrained eye. Bluffers show discomfort when they repeatedly talk about finalizing the hand or when disruptions appeal to them. People tend to distance themselves from those with whom they feel uncomfortable. Even while sitting side by side, people will lean away from those with whom they feel uncomfortable, often moving either their torsos or their feet away or toward an exit, which nonverbally exhibits displeasure. These actions can occur in a game due to the subject matter discussed. Likewise, people create artificial barriers with either their shoulders and arms or with inanimate objects in front of them such as their chip stacks. For example, by the end of one session, a very aggressively bluffing player had built a little barrier in front of himself using soda cans, chip stacks, and various piles of stuff. Other clear signs of discomfort include rubbing the forehead near the temple region, squeezing the face, rubbing the neck, or stroking the back of the head with the hand.10 Interviewees often will show their displeasure by rolling their eyes out of disrespect; picking lint off themselves (preening); talking down to their opponent; giving short answers; becoming resistant, hostile, or sarcastic; or displaying “micro gestures” with indecent connotations, such as “giving the finger.” Eyes also serve as formidable communicators of discomfort, yet players often ignore them during a hand. People use their eyes as a blocking mechanism similar to folding their arms across their chest or turning away from their opponent. In a similar response, when people do not like something they hear, they usually close their eyes as if to block out what they just heard. They do this subconsciously and may do it so often that you do not pay attention to it. People may close their eyes before touching or rubbing them as if to further block or relieve themselves of what they just heard. In most cases, eye blocking proves extremely accurate in highlighting issues problematic to your opponent.
Additionally, when people feel troubled or frustrated or they have a subdued temper tantrum, their eyelids may close or flutter rapidly as an expression of their sentiment. Research also has shown that when people are nervous or troubled, their blink rate increases, a phenomenon often seen with liars under stress. In one case catalogued the bluffer’s blink rate increase from 27 times per minute to 84 times a minute during stressful hand. People learned to look down or away from parental authority as a form of respect when questioned or scolded. You should remain aware of changes in eye contact and eye behavior during hands. They should establish the opponents default pattern of eye behavior during benign questioning then look for changes or indicators of discomfort as the interview progresses, which often gives clues to deception.

Emphasis
When people speak, they naturally incorporate various parts of their body, such as the eyebrows, head, hands, arms, torso, legs, and feet, to emphasize a point for which they feel deeply or emotionally.This movement proves important because, as a rule, people emphasize when genuine.Liars, for the most part, do not emphasize with nonverbals. They will think of what to say and how to deceive, but rarely do they think about the presentation of the lie. When compelled to lie, most people do not realize how much emphasis or accentuation enters into everyday conversations. Emphasis accurately reflects reality or the truth. When blufferrs attempt to fabricate a response, their emphasis looks unnatural or is delayed; they rarely emphasize where appropriate, or they choose to do so only on unimportant matters. People accentuate both verbally and nonverbally in their interactions. They emphasize verbally through voice, pitch, tone, or repetition.On the other hand, they When interpreting eye contact, however, many misconceptions still exist. Little or no eye contact is perceived erroneously by some as a classic sign of deception, especially during a hand, while the truthful should “lock eyes.” This may be accurate for some but not for all. For instance, research shows that Machiavellian people actually will increase eye contact during deception. This may occur because they know that many players look for this feature. Also, some emphasize nonverbally, which can prove even more accurate and useful to you. People who typically use their hands while speaking punctuate their remarks with hand gestures that emphatically illustrate or exclaim. They also may thrust forward, point, or pound the table as they emphasize.Others accentuate with the tips of their fingers, either touching things or gesturing with them. Hand behaviors compliment speech, thoughts, and true sentiments. Raising eyebrows (eyebrow flash) or widening eyes also emphasizes point. When interested, people lean their torsos forward and, often, employ gravity-defying gestures, such as raising up on the balls of their feet as they make a significant or emotionally charged point. While sitting down, some emphasize by raising the knee to highlight important points. Occasionally, people will add emphasis by slapping their knee as it comes up, indicative of emotional exuberance. Gravity-defying gestures symbolize emphasis and true sentiment, both of which liars rarely possess. In contrast, people de-emphasize or show lack of commitment by speaking behind their hands or showing limited facial expression as if to control their countenance because they are not committed to what they are saying. Deceptive people often show deliberative, pensive displays, such as touching fingers to their chin or stroking their cheeks, as though they still are thinking about something. They are evaluating what they did and your reponse, which is inconsistent with honest behavior.

Synchrony
In detecting deception, synchrony plays an important role. Ideally, synchrony (e.g., harmony, congruence, and concordance) should occur between players between what is said vocally and nonverbally; between the circumstances of the moment and what the bluffer is saying; and between events and emotions, including synchrony of time and space. When answering yes/no questions should have congruent head movement supporting what they say. Lack of synchrony often occurs when after you fold people say, “I had the nuts,” while nodding their heads right and left as if to say, “no, I didn't.” Or, when asked, “Are you bluffing?” their heads may bob up and down as they deny. Upon catching themselves in this faux pas, they then reverse their head movement. When observed, these instances are almost comical and amateurish. More often, a mendacious statement, such as “I had the nuts,” precedes a noticeably delayed and less emphatic negative head movement. These behaviors are not synchronous and, therefore, more likely to be equated with a lie. Synchrony should occur between what is being said and the events of the moment. If your opponent interjects with superfluous information or facts totally irrelevant, you should note the disharmony. When the actions are asynchronous with the event and the situation, you may assume that something likely is wrong or the person is stalling for time to perhaps looking for cues from you. Last, synchrony should exist between events, time, and space. A person who delays their actions should come under suspicion.

Perception Management
Perception management occurs both verbally and nonverbally. During a game, liars often use perception management, a concept with which psychopaths are well acquainted, to influence their intended targets of deception. For instance, nonverbally, subjects will yawn excessively as if to show that they feel bored. If the person is sitting, they may slouch or splay out on a couch, stretch their arms, and cover more territory as if to demonstrate their comfort. Verbally, liars will try to vocalize their honesty, integrity, and the implausibility of their bluffing. They will try to “look good” to theother players, so-called close friends. Further, bluffers may self-medicate through the use of alcohol or prescription drugs to appear placid and content. They may change their clothing or hair styles to appear more genuine or more socially conventional. In all of these examples, subjects attempt to manage your perception. People practice perception management every day, such as getting dressed for a date. However, when it manifests itself in a game setting, players should recognize such efforts and question the intent. They may use perception management statements, such as “I can't bluff,” “I am a terrible bluffer", "I am a rock”, “I have never bluffed,” “I would never bluff,” or “I would never do such a thing,” all of which should alert you to the possibility of deception. Other statements, such as “to be perfectly frank,” “to be honest,” “to be perfectly truthful,” or “I was always taught to play the cards not the players,” are solely intended to influence perception.

Conclusion
The detection of deception remains a difficult task. Poker players can enhance their ability to detect deception by focusing on four domains —comfort/discomfort, emphasis, synchrony, and perception management—rather than merely trying to detect traditional signs of deception, which, in some cases, may be misleading. The research in this area over the last 20 years is unequivocal. Nonverbal behaviors, in and of themselves, do not clearly indicate deception. However, when you notice a display of discomfort and a lack of comfort, emphasis, synchrony, and perception management, a greater certitude for assessing deception exists. You can expect players to react poorly in one or twoareas. But, to do so in all four domains indicates communication problems, which may originate from the bluffer’s antipathy toward you or result from guilty knowledge of their bluff.