NL TOURNY HOLD'EM STARTING HANDS LIST

MY NL TOURNY HOLD'EM STARTING HANDS LIST
1 Call in front of you
AA, KK, QQ=Raise(R) 90% of time/Call(C) 10% of time (R=3x to 5x BigBlind(BB))
JJ,TT=R90%/C10% (R=4x to 5x BB)
99=R50%/C50%
55-22=Call on Button
88-66=C
AKs,AKo= R
AQs=R, AQo=C
AJs, AJo=C
ATs=C, ATo=Fold (F)
A9-A2=F
KQs=Call, KQo=F
KJs=C if bettor is weak, otherwise fold KJ
Suited Connectors (not mentioned above)= 3 or more callers in front C, less than 3=F
3 Calls or more in front of you (you’re on button)
AA, KK, QQ, JJ,TT=R 4x to 5x BB
99-22=C and hope to flop set
AKso=R
AQs=R, AQo=C
AJso-ATso=C
Axs=C Axo=F
Suited Connectors=C
Unsuited Connectors down to 5,4=C, 4,3 & 3,2= F
KJso=C
KT etc.=F
Nobody shows strength in front of you
AA, KK, QQ=R 80 % of time 3x-4x BB from early and middle table position & 2x BB from late. Limp(L) 20% of time.
JJ,TT,99= Early: 70%R & 30%L (R=4x-5x BB)
Mid.: 100%R (R=3x-5x BB)
Late: 75%R & 25%L (R=3x-5x BB)
88,77,66= Early: 20%R & 80%L
Mid.: 88=R, 77 & 66=L
Late: 75%R & 25%L
55,44,33,22= Early: F
Mid.: 55&44=L, 33 & 22=F
Late: 55&44=R, 33 & 22=L (weak blinds=R55-22)
AKso,AQso= Early: 75%R & 25%L (R=3x-5x BB)
(caution if you get action and flop doesn’t hit you)
Mid.: 85%R & 15%L
Late: 85%R & 15%L
AJs,ATs= Early: 50%R & 50%L
Mid.: 75%R & 25%L
Late: Strong Raise
A9s,A8s= Early: 50%R & 50%L (weak table & little preflop action, if not fold)
Mid.: 50%R & 50%L
Late: 80%R & 20%L
A9o,A8o= Early: F
Mid.: F
Late: 90%R & 10%L
A7 & lower= on Button: R
1 b4 Button: A7 & A6=R, A5,4,3=F
late: A7s=50%R & 50%L, the rest only blind stealing or fold
KQso, KJso, QJso= Early: KQs=50%R & 50%L, KQo=50%R & 50%F (weak table & little preflop action, if not fold) KJso,QJso=F
Mid.: 50%R & 50%F
Late: steal blinds only, else fold
Suited Connectors= Under Gun(UG) & UG+1=15%R/85%F
Early: JTs=L, F the rest
Mid.: JTs=50%R & 50%L,T9s=15%R & 85%L, F the rest
Late: JTs,T9s=R, 89s,78s=L, F the rest
Misc. Hands= Late: KTs, K9s,QTs= 50%R & 50%F (R=3x BB)
On button=KTso, K9so,Qtso,Q9so,J9s= R=3x BB
You’re Small Blind attacking Big Blind
50%R & 50%L (R=5x BB) with:
1. any pair
2. Ax, Kx, Qx down to Q5
3. JTs & J9s

1 Raise of 3x BB or greater(not allins) in front of you
AA,KK= 85%RR(reraise)/15%C
QQ= 70%RR/30%C
JJ,TT= 20%RR/80%C
99,88,77= C
66-22= F
AKso= C
AQs= C
F everything elseRaise and Reraise In Front of You
AA=RRR
KK=RRR (with caution)
QQ=C
F everything else
3:56 PM



Card Counting- Theory vs. Practice
Many blackjack players make the mistake of learning the theory and mechanics of card counting and then head off to their favorite casino expecting to make a killing. Of course, learning how to count is important--but there is more to card counting than theory. Let's begin with the all-important penetration, which is the percentage or number of cards that are dealt before the dealer reshuffles the cards.Arnold Snyder (www.RGE21.com) has studied the effect of penetration on a counter's advantage in great detail. In one study, using typical Las Vegas playing rules with a 1 to 4 bet spread in a 2-deck game, a counter playing heads up with the dealer would have a 1.0% advantage if 70% of the cards were dealt. If the dealer dealt 90% of the cards in the same game, the counter's advantage would increase by 80% to 1.8%. If only 50% of the cards were dealt, the counter's edge would decrease by 50% to only 0.5%. This study and scores of others that followed have proven the importance of penetration to a counter's advantage. The bottom line is this: the more cards that the dealer deals out prior to reshuffling the cards, the greater is the card counter's advantage.Most counters will never play in a game unless the penetration is 75% or more. This means in a typical 6-deck game, only 1.5 decks of cards are cut out of play. Likewise, most counters would not waste their time and money trying to count in a game with only 50% penetration. To do so is a waste of time and money.Most casinos are fairly strict about the placement of the cut card by the dealer after the shuffle and cut. Many have a measuring device or a grove on the side of the dealing shoe that indicates to the dealer where to position the cut card. However, there are still many casinos that only give guidelines to the dealer as to how many decks to cut off. It's possible, therefore, to find a dealer who gives a more liberal cut, say cutting off only one deck instead of 1.5 decks in a 6-deck game. These are the games that become very profitable for card counters.One way of knowing which casinos that give more favorable penetration is to subscribe to either Stanford Wong's Current Blackjack Newsletter (www.BJ21.com) or Arnold Snyder's Blackjack Forum (www.RGE21.com). Wong lists the number of decks of cards that each casino cuts out of play and Snyder lists whether the penetration is bad, good, unexceptional, or varies. Another source of up-to-date information on penetration for different casinos is the Blackjack Insider Newsletter (www.blackjack.casino.com). If you are card counter or planning to become one, this information is invaluable.Another important criteria that card counters use to evaluate a blackjack game is the playing rules. For example, the fewer the number of decks of cards, the greater the edge to the player. Also, rules that allow doubling after pair splitting, late surrender, and the dealer standing rather than hitting on soft 17 are favorable for players. But a word of caution is in order: some games with marginal rules can still be beaten if the penetration is good. For example, most counters shun an 8-deck game, but if the rules are decent and the penetration is 80% it would be a better game compared to, say, a 6-deck game with similar rules but only a 50% penetration. Likewise, a single-deck game with bad rules but 70% penetration is more profitable than a game with 50% penetration and good rules. Donald Schlesinger--in his excellent book, "Blackjack Attack"--has quantified the relative attractiveness of different blackjack games using what he calls SCORE (Standardized Comparison of Risk and Expectation). There are plenty of charts in Schlesinger's book where you can locate the hourly profit potential based on different rules, number of decks, and betting spreads--again, very valuable information for determining which games is worth a counter's time.It's also to a card counter's advantage to play at tables that are not crowded with other players. The best is playing head up with the dealer. This allows you to see more cards before making your playing decision. Also, when the count gets high, you will have just as much chance as the dealer of getting the aces and tens. Counters can also spread to two hands in high-count situations, giving them an even greater chance of drawing the aces and tens. Playing at less crowded tables will increase the number of hands per hour dealt and a counter's win rate. Another important point is whether or not the pit boss will allow a decent bet spread. In single-deck games you'll need to spread at least 1 to 3-4 betting units; and in 6-deck games, 1 to 8-10 betting units. If you are limited in your bet spread by a nervous pit boss that gives you "heat" every time you make a large bet, your profit potential decreases. These are just some of the factors that skilled counters must evaluate to maximize their profit potential when they play blackjack. Others include balancing profits with risk, disguising skills when they play, and knowing the typical counter-measures that casinos employ against counters such as the continuous shuffling machines that are popping up in casinos everywhere. Yes, there is more to winning at blackjack then just learning the theory and mechanics of card counting.
12:10 AM


Card Counting - The Tricks
Developing your speed at counting is an important because if you can't count quickly at home, you'll never keep up with the dealer in a casino. Inaccurate counting can cause you to give up any edge you have over the house and it's frustrating to constantly "drop" the count when a faster dealer comes along.
At this point you should have the point values of each card memorized and you might be doing some single-card countdowns of a deck. I'm sure you're slow at it, but that's OK, since accuracy is the most important factor right now. Speed will come as you work your way through the exercises I'll show you this week.
Pairs Value Practice
Just as you learned the point value of each card according to the system you wish to use, here you will learn the point value of different PAIRS of cards. This is one of the real "tricks" of the card-counting business: the ability to count cards in pairs. With enough practice, you'll see a hand of Queen, Jack as both a "20" and an M-2. That capability will bring speed to your game. Here are the values of pairs using the Hi / Lo method of counting
Hand Net Point Value
If you understand everything above, then start going through a single deck and turn two cards over at a time. DO NOT keep a running count, just recite the value of each pair so you can get used to the adding and subtracting which is required. Do this until you are totally familiar with the values of all possible pairs. Then do it some more.
Laying down a good foundation here will allow you to build your speed quickly later on, so this exercise is time well spent. For you "Type-A's" out there, you might even push this to learning 3-card values. That is a very helpful skill to have, particularly if you intend to play one-on-one with a dealer, since you always see 3 cards at once; your initial pair and the dealer's up card. Most of you will want to begin play at tables with other players since things move slower that way, but like I said -- knowing the 3-card values won't hurt.
Pairs Countdown
Once again, remove three random cards from a single deck and set them aside. (No peeking!) Now, turn over the cards two at a time, keep a running (cumulative) count of the deck and check your accuracy by adding the cards you set aside in at the end. This exercise will be your primary way of practicing card counting.
Gradually, your speed will increase to a point where you will count as quickly as you can turn over the cards. To go even faster, hold the deck in your left hand, face up, and pull the cards -- two at a time -- off the deck with your right hand. (Opposite if you're left-handed). Help the cards along with your thumb and you'll start to build some speed. How fast is "fast"? I go through a deck in 10.5 seconds, but all you need to keep up at an average table with 2 or 3 other players is 20 seconds, though 15 is better (and easy attained if you practice).
Counting at the Table
The method we use to count cards at the table is the real secret of this business. For those games where the cards are dealt face up to the players, the diagram below will show you how we do it. Games where the cards are dealt face down (mostly single deck) require a different methodology.
Most dealers keep their up card face-down until each player has received both cards. The procedure for counting at a table like that is to begin counting when the player at "first base" receives his second card and to count each player's pair as the cards are dealt. End your count with the dealer's up card and then count each player's "hit" cards. Finally, count the dealer's hole card and any cards the dealer may take as a hit.
You can see that this method of counting by pairs allows you to look more natural at the table. Most people think counters track each card as it's dealt, so supervisory people at casinos watch for players who follow every cards as it comes out. This method allows you to look away from the table as the first card is going down and then watch as each hand is made with the second card. That looks a lot more natural, since most players are interested in seeing what hands other players get.
Homework
Besides continuing with your basic strategy practice, start playing some "kitchen table" Blackjack. If you can con someone into dealing to you, great, but if you can't, just deal four player hands out in a manner they use at your favorite casino. Don't assume the role of the dealer; you want to get used to seeing all this from a player's perspective so deal one card to an imaginary first-base player, then to yourself and then to two other imaginary players on your left. Finish with a dealer's card face down across from you and then deal the second player's card. Begin counting as shown above and finish with a dealer's up card. Now, play ALL FOUR player's hands according to proper basic strategy and keep the count. Busy, huh? Don't worry, with practice it will all come to you. When you're done with the first round, do another and then riffle through the few remaining cards to verify that you've kept the count accurately.
This exercise will form the basis for all of our practice -- except speed development -- from here on out. As you'll discover, this type of "overload" makes it very easy to play and keep count at an actual casino game; all you need to do there is just sit back, count and play.
12:03 AM


Monkey butts
A team from Duke University found that the male monkey will forgo his own rewards (juice) in exchange for being permitted to view pictures of female monkeys' bottoms. [Discovery-Animal Planet, 1-11-05] [LiveScience.com, 1-28-05]
10:08 AM



Blackjack Card Counting

If you can become proficient enough at Card Counting you will have an edge over the Casino, this is not a system. The secret behind Card Counting is knowing whether the deck or decks are loaded in your favor or the Dealers, if their are lots of 10 value cards then its big bet time, if their are few 10 value cards then be cautious with your bets. What we are going to learn here is called the Plus/Minus count.

We are going to beat the house by spreading our bets, what I mean by that is when the Pack or Shoe is rich in Tens we will bet high and when it is rich in low cards we will bet low. The first thing to memorise are cards 2,3,4,5,6 they are worth +1. Cards 7,8,9 we ignore and cards 10,J,Q,K,A are worth -1. We want to join a table after the cards have been shuffled, at this point we can effectively start our count. We start with a running count of zero, as the cards are dealt we add a point for any card from 2 to 6, we take a point away for cards 10 to Ace and ignore 7 to 9.

I need to point out at this time you will not be able to read this, walk into a Casino
and start counting at a Blackjack table, it will require some practice. If you practice for an Hour every day for 2 or 3 weeks you may be ready.


Start by getting a pack of cards, take out the Jokers and turn over the cards one
at a time face up and count them in the following fashion. In your head say one
for a 2 to 6 card and say Minus One for a 10 to Ace card (you may want to
shorten Minus to a single syllable for speed, anything that takes your fancy)
ignore the rest of the cards (7,8,9). Go through the pack over and over until
you can spot the cards fluently, when you are happy with your performance we will move onto the next stage.

We will now turn over the cards one at a time but this time we are going to keep a running count, start at zero and add one for a 2 to 6 card and take one away for a 10 to Ace card. Just to make things clear lets look at an example. First card Jack, your running count is now 1, next card Ace, running count 2, next card 5, running count 1, next card 9, running count 0, next card 2, running count -1. With a complete pack when you turn over the last card your running count should be zero, if it is not you have gone wrong somewhere, start again, slow down, once you are comfortable speed up. The ultimate goal is to be able to count faster than a dealer can deal comfortably, how fast is that? One step at a time, my advice is to practice until you get it right almost every time and as fast as you can turn them over. Another tip is to put 2 or 3 packs together, same rules apply as with one pack.

Until then happy practice and good luck...
3:45 PM


Poker Bankroll
How big does your bankroll need to be? It is folly to criticize a player for having an insufficient starting bankroll. Taking 100 shots with $50 each time gives you about the same chance of eventual success as taking a single shot with $5,000 - provided you play your best game at all times.
Of course, this isn't precisely true. Other factors may influence your fate substantially. What factors? Well, if you play with a single buy-in, you're more likely to go all-in. These all-in situations change your prospects. Actually, being all-in can often work to your advantage, because other players may then eliminate themselves from the showdown by not calling bets. While this is happening, you are guaranteed to make the showdown. This means you will win all pots where you can stumble into the best hand, while your opponents will not.
You may also play differently on short money and your opponents may play differently against you. You sometimes will not have the opportunity to stay in a good game with $50, although you might have stayed and made profit if you had a big bankroll behind you. There are many other factors to consider, but - in general - taking 100 shots with just $50 each time can be considered the same as gathering $5,000 before you play the first time. If you play the same type of poker, your prospects will be similar.
So, the common notion that short money is at a big disadvantage is a myth. You are much more likely to go broke with only a small buy-in, but the force of all those short buy-ins combined should give you about the same opportunity overall as one big bankroll.
Not everyone needs a bankroll. Players who only expect to play occasionally, or who are playing recreationally, can just bring whatever they can afford whenever they can afford it. Bankrolls are things you build and are designed for people without infinite assets who want to play regularly.
You must play your best game all the time. The policy of playing your best game most of the time is the greatest destroyer of bankrolls there is. At higher-limit games, players actually seem to take turns "going on tilt." If you pass your turn quite often, without your opponents realizing it, you'll win the most money.
It remains one of the most fundamentally important things you can learn if you want to succeed at poker. You are not likely to succeed if you decide to blatantly take advantage of knowledgeable opponents' super-loose play. If they're taking turns going on tilt, and you come into the game and play perfectly stable, you won't fit in. They will resent you and often they will stop providing you with profit.
The trick is to play along and show some fast action, too. Simulate tilt. Make them aware of it. But pass your turn when they don't notice. Among equally skilled players, the one who spends the least time on tilt (or simulating tilt) wins the most money.
Don't make the mistake of routinely promoting yourself to higher limits as you continue to win. You might eventually find a level you can't beat. When this happens, most players refuse to step back down, and they lose or "spin their wheels" for the rest of their poker careers.
This is actually an application of the Peter Principle (about how people get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence) to poker.
Be selective about your games. Don't routinely take the first one you see. Most of your profit will come from good games. Even most winning players lose money in tougher games.
Those are fighting words, but they're true. If I could select the worst 50 percent of games that professionals played in throughout their careers, most would be losers for those sessions. It is the other 50 percent of their games - and sometimes an even much smaller portion of their games - that supply the profit for most pros. Game selection is much more important than most players suppose.
You should be less protective of a small bankroll. The larger your bankroll grows, the more worthy it is of protection and the less chances you should take. That's because a large bankroll would be much harder to replace from sources in the world beyond poker. You can usually get a small starting bankroll from the "real" world, but it's unlikely that you will be able to replace an established bankroll in the same way.
Don't treat your bankroll like a tournament buy-in. You can have a "tournament" almost any day you want. Just keep jumping into higher and higher limits until you reach a long-shot goal or go broke. But in a tournament, only one player ends up with the chips. Everyone else goes broke. Don't treat your bankroll that way.
Don't spend your bankroll. It's tempting to start with $500, win $20,000, spend $12,000 you think you don't need, then lose $8,500. You'll be flat broke, on the rail, and begging for money. But you actually won $11,500! Don't let that happen to you.
3:29 PM

Poker Math
1. Odds
Some gamblers might have heard this word over and over again without really knowing what it meant. Odds are a cousin of probability. So, what’s probability? Probability is the chance that a given event will take place. When the weatherman says there is a 25 percent chance of rain today, he is expressing a probability. He is saying the probability that it will rain today is 25 percent. What that means is that if today happened 100 times, 25 of those times it would rain, and 75 times it wouldn’t. This brings us back to odds. Odds compare the number of times an event will happen to the number of times it won’t. In our weatherman example, the odds against rain falling today would be 75 to 25 — that is, for every 75 times that it would rain, it wouldn’t rain 25 times. We write these odds, 75-25. It is equivalent to express these odds as 3-1, because we can see that for every time it rains, it doesn’t rain three times (75 divided by 25 equals 3).
Let’s look at the probabilities and the odds for some different events.
Coin flip, heads: probability 50 percent, odds 1-1
Airline flight delayed: probability 12.5 percent (data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics), Odds 7-1
Picking the A out of a deck: Probability 1/52 = 1.9 percent, Odds 51-1 (in this case, it’s easier to do the odds)
2. Combinations
In a game like Texas hold’em, we are interested in questions like, “what are the odds against completing a four-card flush draw after the flop?” This is a much harder question than, “What are the odds against completing a four-card flush draw after the turn?” In the latter case, there is only one card left to come. There are 46 unknown cards at that point (52 minus the two in our hand and the four on the board). So, to calculate our odds of making a flush draw after the turn, we just compare the number of unknown cards that don’t help us (37) to the number of unknown cards that do (nine). The odds of making a flush draw after the turn, therefore, are 37-9, or about 4.1-1.
After the flop, with two cards still to come, it’s not as straightforward. If we don’t make our flush on the turn, we could still make it on the river. How do we account for this? We do it by counting the different combinations of cards that could come. Say we hold the 9 8 and the flop is 10 4 2. The turn and river could be A K. They could be A A. They could be 3 3. They could be J J. Each of these is a different combination of turn and river cards. Note that J J is the same combination as J J, because they result in the same board. Now, instead of counting cards to determine our odds, we count combinations. If you write down every last possible combination for the turn and river in this hand, it turns out that there are 1,081. Then, if you look closely at all of them, it turns out that 378 result in a flush for our hand. So, the odds against making a four-card flush draw after the flop are 703-378 (because 1,081 minus 378 is 703), or about 1.86-1.
Just by learning these two terms, you now know how to calculate the odds against making any hold’em hand after the flop, or after the turn. Cool, huh? It is cool, but it’s also a lot of work to calculate your odds for every draw you might run into. Luckily, you don’t have to, as I’ll explain.
3. Outs
Your outs are the number of cards in the deck that will improve your hand. The flush draw we held above had nine outs. An open-end straight draw has eight outs. Two overcards have six outs. You could go through the odds calculation for each of these draws — or you could just read the results off the chart.
Again, it’s not important to know these exact numbers. In fact, there’s a useful trick called the Rule of Four to help you. Multiply your number of outs by four, and that number is roughly your percent chance of improving after the flop. So, with a flush draw on the flop, you have about a 9 times 4 = 36 percent chance of improving to a flush by the river (the actual number is 35 percent). Notice that this is the probability of improving, and not the odds against improving. Here are some quick conversions:
25 percent = 3-1 against
33 percent = 2-1 against
40 percent = 3-2 against
50 percent = 1-1 against
If you understand what I’ve written, you understand everything you need to assess your chances of improving in a hold’em hand. With enough practice, the numbers will become natural enough to you so that you can focus on other things at the table.